Asia -Commodities Fundamental Forecast | 21 December 2023
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
GDP (1:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The final estimate for third quarter GDP will be released today and it is expected to show the US economy growing 5.2% YoY, a big jump from 2.1% YoY in the previous quarter. A higher GDP print could provide some lift for the DXY and put pressure on gold prices.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to edge higher this week with the estimate showing claims rising to 214k from 202k in the previous week. A stronger-than-expected figure would once again indicate an uptrend in claims being filed which could potentially signal a weakening of the US labour market and could cause the DXY to fall and thus boost gold prices during the US session.
Next 24 Hours Bias: Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 2.9M barrels versus the estimate of a drawdown of 2.3M – these gains resulted in the first inventory build in three weeks. Despite both the API and EIA stockpiles surprisingly gaining this week, crude oil prices remain elevated primarily due to the concerns around the shipping lanes in the Red Sea.
The situation was exacerbated on Wednesday after Greece advised commercial vessels sailing in the region to avoid Yemeni waters. Greek ship-owners control approximately 20% of the world’s commercial vessels in terms of carrying capacity and re-routing these vessels will result in higher shipping costs (and oil prices) and longer delivery times as well. WTI oil climbed above $75.00 per barrel on Wednesday but slid under $74.00 as Asian markets came online this morning.
Next 24 Hours Bias: Weak Bullish