Asia - Commodities Fundamental Forecast | 14 December 2023
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Retail Sales (1:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Following the dovish FOMC statement and press conference, gold prices surged with spot prices rocketing as high as $2,040/oz overnight. As the value of the US dollar and Treasury yields both plunged, they provided the bullish catalyst for this precious metal.
Despite the official holiday shopping period kicking off with Black Friday sales at the end of last month, November’s estimate of -0.1% points to another month of decline for US retail sales. A weaker-than-expected sales figure could add further downward pressure on the DXY later today. Meanwhile, unemployment claims have edged higher over the past two weeks and another print that is higher than the forecast of 219k could keep this uptrend intact and potentially provide some lift for the DXY. Any fluctuation in the DXY is all but certain to impact the direction of gold during the US session.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Following the larger-than-expected drawdown in API stockpiles on Tuesday, EIA crude oil inventories dropped by 4.3M barrels versus the estimate of a 1.5M draw. Larger drawdowns typically signal stronger demand for crude oil in the US and can provide a boost to oil prices.
WTI oil hit a high of $70.30 per barrel at the start of the Asia session and this commodity is likely to edge higher today, buoyed by a dovish Federal Reserve overnight.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish